Election Predictions Part 1

We are only 3 weeks away from finally getting to vote in this never-ending election, so I thought it was appropriate that I put out my first round of predictions. Of course, I say first round because inevitably something will happen between now and November 4th that will make these predictions entirely moot (like John McCain punching himself in the face during the debate because he cannot decide which John McCain to be), thus requiring revision.

Prediction 1: Obama will win the nationwide popular vote 54-46. This is a huge margin, but here is how I am seeing it: Obama is going to rack up big margins in Blue states, win a lot of the purple states by close calls, and compete well in most red states (save Alabama). He may only lose Texas by single digits, and yet win New York by 20.

Prediction 2: Obama will win the electoral college 343 to 195. He won't destroy him, but it will be an interesting mandate. I think McCain has the ability to capture Ohio and North Carolina, but the chances are low. On the otherhand, I think Obama has the ability to take North Dakota, Indiana, and Missouri. No matter what, there will be some surprises on election day.

Prediction 3: The House of Reps will stay in the hands of the Dems, but there will be shifts. Conservative Dems are going to lose this round, but so will Moderate Republicans. Net gain of 3 seats for the Dems.

Prediction 4: The Senate will be a catastrophe for the Republicans. Franken (MN), Udall (CO), Udall (NM), Hagan (NC), Martin (GA), Warner (VA), Shaheen (NH), Begich (AK), Musgrove (MS), and Merkley (OR) are all in a position to win or make it very close. That would be 10 pick-ups. If that happened, the Dems could give Lieberman a swift kick in the ass because he would be useless. No matter what, the guy is losing his chairmanship, but Dems will continue to play nice if they need him to get a filibuster-proof majority. In other words, unless the Dems pick up 9 seats, no more, no less, Joe is done.

Prediction 5: There will be two big endorsements for Obama in the coming 3 weeks. The first will be Colin Powell. This will solidify Obama's foriegn policy flank, and will bring more independants to the ticket. The second is Chuck Hagel. I can see the speech now: "John McCain is a great man. John McCain is a hero. But our great country needs Barack Obama. He will restore America to its glory and I look forward to being his Secretary of State."

Prediction 6: Dick Cheney runs around the Oval Office in his underwear on January 20th 2009 refusing to leave. Secret service tackle him, only to find out that he is actually a robot. The real Dick Cheney is found 3 days later in a man size safe, mummified with toilet paper wrappings enscripted with the US Constitution. Okay, not actually an election prediction, but it could still happen.

And lastly: Prediction 7: That lady who called Barack Obama an Arab finds out her daughter is marrying a Egyptian Harvard graduate with a PhD in Economics and she is converting to Islam. Bless her heart.