No more waiting

I never understood the lyrics to John Mayer's song "Waiting on the world to change". He starts by saying that he stands for change and that he wants to rise above everything that is going wrong in the world, but then the refrain just repeats his lame mantra "So we keep waiting, Waiting on the world to change".

Well John, I don't know about you, but yesterday the rest of us stood up, and changed the world ourselves.

Every generation has its moment. Victory in WWII, the Civil Rights Act, putting a man on the moon, the fall of the Berlin Wall. The past 7 years however have been nothing but pain and suffering for our country. It seems as though the attacks of 9/11 did more damage to our country than Bin Laden could have ever imagined. With a terrible President at the helm, we ruined our standing in the world, defaced our Constitution, and squandered a chance to unite as one underneath our flag. If 9/11 was going to be the defining moment of our generation, we were in for a troubled future.

But today, we start anew. Our moment is now and our time has come. Henry David Thoreau, Dr. Martin Luther King Jr. and President-Elect Barack Obama say it better than any blogger ever could:



"I do not say that John or Jonathan will realize all this; but such is the character of that morrow which mere lapse of time can never make to dawn. The light which puts out our eyes is darkness to us. Only that day dawns to which we are awake. There is more day to dawn. The sun is but a morning star."

"I say to you today, my friends, so even though we face the difficulties of today and tomorrow, I still have a dream. It is a dream deeply rooted in the American dream.

I have a dream that one day this nation will rise up and live out the true meaning of its creed: "We hold these truths to be self-evident: that all men are created equal."

I have a dream that one day on the red hills of Georgia the sons of former slaves and the sons of former slave owners will be able to sit down together at the table of brotherhood.

I have a dream that one day even the state of Mississippi, a state sweltering with the heat of injustice, sweltering with the heat of oppression, will be transformed into an oasis of freedom and justice.

I have a dream that my four little children will one day live in a nation where they will not be judged by the color of their skin but by the content of their character.

I have a dream today.......I have a dream that one day every valley shall be exalted, every hill and mountain shall be made low, the rough places will be made plain, and the crooked places will be made straight, and the glory of the Lord shall be revealed, and all flesh shall see it together.

This is our hope. This is the faith that I go back to the South with. With this faith we will be able to hew out of the mountain of despair a stone of hope. With this faith we will be able to transform the jangling discords of our nation into a beautiful symphony of brotherhood. With this faith we will be able to work together, to pray together, to struggle together, to go to jail together, to stand up for freedom together, knowing that we will be free one day.

This will be the day when all of God's children will be able to sing with a new meaning, "My country, 'tis of thee, sweet land of liberty, of thee I sing. Land where my fathers died, land of the pilgrim's pride, from every mountainside, let freedom ring.".......And when this happens, when we allow freedom to ring, when we let it ring from every village and every hamlet, from every state and every city, we will be able to speed up that day when all of God's children, black men and white men, Jews and Gentiles, Protestants and Catholics, will be able to join hands and sing in the words of the old Negro spiritual, "Free at last! free at last! thank God Almighty, we are free at last!"

"And to all those who have wondered if America's beacon still burns as bright: Tonight we proved once more that the true strength of our nation comes not from the might of our arms or the scale of our wealth, but from the enduring power of our ideals: democracy, liberty, opportunity and unyielding hope......This is our time, to put our people back to work and open doors of opportunity for our kids; to restore prosperity and promote the cause of peace; to reclaim the American dream and reaffirm that fundamental truth, that, out of many, we are one; that while we breathe, we hope. And where we are met with cynicism and doubts and those who tell us that we can't, we will respond with that timeless creed that sums up the spirit of a people: Yes, we can."

The Final Countdown

So here we are: 2 years, 20 some-odd candidates, 8000 debates, and 900 million dollars later, we have finally reached the end. Barring some terrible election fiasco a la Florida 2000, tomorrow night we will know the outcome of this presidential election.

What is left to blog about? We can measure the drapes and pick out the china pattern!

Or we can discuss the future of the Republican party.

The GOP is like lead and melamine tainted products from China: very toxic and utterly ruined as a brand. How will they ever recover at the national level? The only region of the country they will still be in the majority is the Deep South, and even that support has weakened. This may be the election that kills the GOP and ushers in two new parties: The fiscal conservatives and the social conservatives. They could each form their own alliances with moderate independents, but it could be decades before either was strong enough to compete nationally.

The only other option was for the entire party to move to the center. They tried that with Bush and then McCain, but as we can see, it only alienates both the religious right and the fiscal hawks.

This crisis is bigger than Watergate because it not just about one man or even the national committee. This GOP crisis is at every level and with every republican voter. I expect that the level of anger and hatred (often directed towards the left but always coming back to their own on the right) will reach a point where third parties will be bolstered. Watch 2012 for the Libertarian and Constitution parties to make real in-roads and possibly even win seats in the house or in state government.

I know we still have Election Day ahead of us, but when it is over and the final votes are cast, there won't be any need to pinch me....all my dreams will have come true.

Election Prediction Part 2

So here we are, less than one week away from Election Day. After nearly 2 years of this stuff, the big day is nearly here. One bright side of the really long campaign has been the fact that the last two years of Bush's presidency have been meaningless. It almost seems like the guy was a lame duck as soon as he entered his second term. Of course, we all know that he has been a lame president for the entire 8 years, its just the duck part that was added in the past two.

So what is going to happen next Tuesday? It is time for my second round of election predictions.

The first prediction is record turnout in general, but specifically for the Democrats. This is a relatively safe prediction because 20% of all eligible voters in Georgia, North Carolina, and Florida have already voted early. Sure they are traditionally republican states, but Obama's GOTV network is pushing much of this early voting. Something like 37 states have early voting, and the more people vote early, the more people will vote on election day because lines will be shorter and more people will be able to help with the GOTV.

On election day, the two greatest factors determining whether someone votes are A) voter enthusiasm and B) the line at the polling precinct.

As far as enthusiasm is concerned, the Democrats are as excited as ever. Just today my conservative aunt made a comment that she expects everything she is planning to vote for will lose. Talk about hurting for enthusiasm. On the flip side, Democrats can smell blood and Barack's rallies are growing in size every week. Thursday night Barack is speaking on the Quad at Mizzou at 930 pm. Columbia Missouri has about 80,000 residents. I wonder how many people will be at his rally?

To me, the biggest fear for election day is long lines at the polls. For the shift worker trying to squeeze in voting between work and picking up kids from day-care, a long line might be a lost vote. My hope is that the historical nature of and extreme enthusiasm for Barack Obama will overcome this problem. Standing in line for a couple of hours is worth avoiding 4 more years of Bush.


Prediction 2: Watch the West slide out from under McCain.

John McCain was seen as a tactical candidate whose strength in the West would help stop the bleeding the GOP suffered from in 2006. Arizona, Montana, North Dakota, Colorado, and New Mexico were all in play before McCain was the nominee. Montana elected a Dem to the Senate in 2006, in part because it was a referendum against Bush, and those anti-Bush feelings have only strengthened. But John McCain has always run strong with western conservatives (typically more fiscally conservative than socially), so those states went back into the red column.

That is, until John McCain started losing the South.

The GOP took the South for granted because they are more socially conservative: something that the Dems have really struggled with ever since Billy Bob Clinton couldn't keep his pants up and the Religious Right bought the GOD...I mean GOP. But with the perfect storm of McCain (seen as weak on social issues) and Barack Obama (speaks like a preacher and energizes the significantly sized minority populations in the South), the South began to turn pink. Heck, in Virginia and North Carolina it has turned Tarheel blue!

McCain has been on the defense in the South ever since, and thus, the West has slipped away. Poll after poll show Obama tied with McCain in Montana and North Dakota, while Nevada, Colorado, and New Mexico are now blue states.

The West is showing signs of giving Barack Obama a landslide victory.

Prediction 3: Here comes Texas.

No one is paying much attention to Texas lately, but if the tide continues to roll, Texas could be the election day surprise. A lot of New Orleans residents are still in Houston, and a lot of Republicans are still licking their wounds from Tom Delay and 2006. Texas has been a Red state because Bush was Gov and likes to cut brush, but Texas is diverse and growing rapidly. Cities like Houston, Dallas, and San Antonio have the potential to turn Texas into a swing state. Polls show the race to be within 10% points, so I am going out on a limb and predicting that Texas will be a 52-48 win for McCain or Obama.


Prediction 4: McCain will lose the election and return to Arizona only to lose that election in 2010. Poor old John McCain. Maybe somebody should give him a Worther's Original and a rocking chair.

Fight the Ignorance Fight the Smears

Since when did it become acceptable to degrade and denigrate those who are different from us?

Since when did it become acceptable to be an ignorant bigot against those who have different names or different beliefs?

My last name happens to have a Z in it. I must be some scary secret Muslim.

Timothy McVeigh was a Christian. I don't see back-woods ignorant rednecks questioning John McCain or Barack Obama for being secret Christians who want to destroy our way of life.

Barack Obama is not a Muslim, and if he were, why would that matter? Are you really that ignorant? Are you really that small minded?

I can respect conservatives who disagree with and attack Barack Obama for his tax plans or his foreign policy judgement. I can respect conservatives who believe that abortion is the only issue that matters, and use it as a litmus test when deciding their vote. I can respect conservatives who objectively analyze the candidates before them and vote the opposite I do.

BUT I CANNOT RESPECT IGNORANT PEOPLE WHO RESORT TO MAKING AND SPREADING LIES AND PERSONAL ATTACKS JUST BECAUSE THEIR MINDS ARE TOO SMALL TO THINK ABOUT WHAT ACTUALLY MATTERS.

If you think Barack Obama is a Muslim, you are not only mis-informed, you are an bigot. If you think Barack Obama refuses to salute the flag, you are not only mis-informed, you ignorant. If you think Barack Obama is a terrorist, you are simply a sad waste of space in our great country. You are no better than the KKK or Neo Nazis, you just happen to hide behind "acceptable" attacks against Muslims instead of Jews or African Americans.

Disagree? Then prove me wrong, take the time to actually learn about who Barack Obama IS, and get back to me.

The ignorance and bigotry coming out of the far right of this country is the most un-Christian and un-American hate that I have ever witnessed in my life.

How can a people of faith, people with religious convictions, be so judgemental and un-Christ-like?

I look forward to the day when all of these ignorant people go to heaven and face God for their prejudices and judgements held while they walked on Earth. I can't imagine living my life with that amount of shame.

But what can we do? How do we fight these ignorant bigots? By engaging them in truthful conversations and forcing them to confront their ignorance. By forcing them to explain themselves. By reading them the Parable of the Good Samaritan.

By going out on November 4th to vote.

Shoeless Joe from Toledo Ohio

Joe the plumber is a bigger load of crap (no pun intended) than John McCain and George W Bush combined.

First his name isn't Joe...its Samuel. And he is registered to vote under Worzelbacher when his last name is spelled Wurzelbacher...SOMEBODY CALL ACORN!!!!!

Second, he isn't a plumber at all. He is a "contractor".

Third, he isn't a licensed contractor or a member of any trade organizations, thus making him a scab and probably a really crappy home remodeler. But he says he is a member of the local 189 on his facebook page so he and Levi have something in common.

Fourth, Joe, I mean Samuel, owes the federal government back taxes. Probably for failing to report income from his crappy home remodeling business. Yeah he is a real American hero, living out the American Dream.

Oh and he had his own gaffe when he said that Obama danced around his question like Sammy Davis Jr. So Samuel Joe Wurzel Worzel Bacher just might be a racist too.

Frickin GOP poster boy.

Looks like John McCain vetted Joe the plumber about as well as he did Sarah Palin.

The Oracle of Tomato Guy Truthiness

So it is still way to early to tell whether Dick Cheney is going to run around in his underpants, but he did go into the hospital today....maybe he needed to go in for robot maintenance? Between this and Chuck Hagel's wife watching the debate tonight with Michelle Obama, I have to say that the blog may have turned into a Gypsy fortune teller.

If that is the case, I should put out more crazy predictions such as John McCain burping during the debate tonight.

Stay tuned for the Alien invasion on election night when Shirley McClain and Dennis Kucinich unveil their true identities and take over the world!

Election Predictions Part 1

We are only 3 weeks away from finally getting to vote in this never-ending election, so I thought it was appropriate that I put out my first round of predictions. Of course, I say first round because inevitably something will happen between now and November 4th that will make these predictions entirely moot (like John McCain punching himself in the face during the debate because he cannot decide which John McCain to be), thus requiring revision.

Prediction 1: Obama will win the nationwide popular vote 54-46. This is a huge margin, but here is how I am seeing it: Obama is going to rack up big margins in Blue states, win a lot of the purple states by close calls, and compete well in most red states (save Alabama). He may only lose Texas by single digits, and yet win New York by 20.

Prediction 2: Obama will win the electoral college 343 to 195. He won't destroy him, but it will be an interesting mandate. I think McCain has the ability to capture Ohio and North Carolina, but the chances are low. On the otherhand, I think Obama has the ability to take North Dakota, Indiana, and Missouri. No matter what, there will be some surprises on election day.

Prediction 3: The House of Reps will stay in the hands of the Dems, but there will be shifts. Conservative Dems are going to lose this round, but so will Moderate Republicans. Net gain of 3 seats for the Dems.

Prediction 4: The Senate will be a catastrophe for the Republicans. Franken (MN), Udall (CO), Udall (NM), Hagan (NC), Martin (GA), Warner (VA), Shaheen (NH), Begich (AK), Musgrove (MS), and Merkley (OR) are all in a position to win or make it very close. That would be 10 pick-ups. If that happened, the Dems could give Lieberman a swift kick in the ass because he would be useless. No matter what, the guy is losing his chairmanship, but Dems will continue to play nice if they need him to get a filibuster-proof majority. In other words, unless the Dems pick up 9 seats, no more, no less, Joe is done.

Prediction 5: There will be two big endorsements for Obama in the coming 3 weeks. The first will be Colin Powell. This will solidify Obama's foriegn policy flank, and will bring more independants to the ticket. The second is Chuck Hagel. I can see the speech now: "John McCain is a great man. John McCain is a hero. But our great country needs Barack Obama. He will restore America to its glory and I look forward to being his Secretary of State."

Prediction 6: Dick Cheney runs around the Oval Office in his underwear on January 20th 2009 refusing to leave. Secret service tackle him, only to find out that he is actually a robot. The real Dick Cheney is found 3 days later in a man size safe, mummified with toilet paper wrappings enscripted with the US Constitution. Okay, not actually an election prediction, but it could still happen.

And lastly: Prediction 7: That lady who called Barack Obama an Arab finds out her daughter is marrying a Egyptian Harvard graduate with a PhD in Economics and she is converting to Islam. Bless her heart.

Too little too late

Sarah Palin put in a surprisingly competent debate performance last night and likely saved her political career. Just not her career as John McCain's VP.

As I have detailed before, John McCain has been desperately searching for a game changing event the past 5 weeks. The announcement of Sarah Palin as his running mate and the suspension of his campaign over the economic crisis were two huge gambles taken in vain effort to change the momentum of the election.

As of Thursday morning, both were failing miserably. Palin was looking so bad, even her original supporters were pronouncing her dead. She had fallen from the graces of everyone (except the true wackos...more on them later), and the VP debate was billed as the nail in the coffin.

Then at the debate, Sarah Palin did something she was unable to do with Katie Couric....she spoke in complete sentences. As the debate went on, she even went as far as finding a rhythm and theme. Joe Biden looked overly scripted and couldn't find a balance between Joey the Shark and Joe six-pack, while Sarah Palin embraced her colloquial and annoying Peggy-Hill-goes-to-Alaska personality and mannerisms.

With that 90 minute performance, she erased all of the doubts and jokes, and returned this race to where it belongs: More of the Same with John McCain or the Change that We Need with Barack Obama.

Sarah Palin can now go on to be a successful Alaskan governor and is well positioned to take Ted Steven's seat in the US Senate after he is either thrown in jail or pushed down a hill.

The problem for John McCain is that in all of Sarah Palin's success last night, the story never even approached Barack Obama. John McCain has tried to make this election about Barack Obama's judgement and Barack Obama's qualifications. As long as the election is about the economy, the war, healthcare, or John McCain, Obama will continue to dominate the polls and will win the election. And if you look at last night's debate, it was a no win situation for Sarah Palin. Her competency had become such a huge distraction that any traction she made on bringing the message back to Barack Obama was utterly ignored. In today's newspapers, everyone is talking about the fact that Sarah Palin got a reversed frontal lobotomy Thursday morning as opposed to talking about the points made in the debate.

To be fair, this is where Joe Biden won the debate. Biden was very articulate and avoided making any gaffes, but more importantly, Joe Biden kept the focus on John McCain, the economy, and healthcare. Because of Joe Biden, a lot of blue collar workers are going to be asking about John McCain's plan for taxing healthcare costs. Because of Joe Biden, the focus is still on that conversation at the kitchen table.

In some ways, it feels as though Barack Obama might as well be running against a blank slate. Election day might as well be a yes/no vote on Barack Obama alone. One could argue that John McCain cannot win this election, only Barack Obama can lose it. But given Obama's rise over the past couple of weeks and given Biden's debate performance last night, they will not lose it. John McCain was hoping Sarah Palin would be a game changer, and she almost was, but ultimately it will all be too little too late for McCain and the GOP.

My Rescue Plan

After 2 weeks of thinking about this economic bailout, I am decidedly undecided about whether it should be passed.

Here is a summary of everything floating around in my head:

There seem to be two major problems with the current crisis. The first is that the precipitous decline in the housing market and rise in foreclosures has resulted in the collapse of mortgage-backed securities and the investment firms that pushed them. As long as housing values continue to decline and as long as foreclosures continue to increase, these debts will continue to drag down wall street and thus keep us in this economic crisis. The Paulson plan is basically writing off all of these debts (and thus writing off the individuals who hold these mortgages) saying that we cannot recover until we wipe the slate clean. That way, if and when these mortgages do go into foreclosure, the debt has already been paid. And if they miraculously avoid foreclosure? The government profits.

This plan is the equivalent to using controlled burn tactics to fight a large forest fire. By conceding a large piece of real estate (no pun intended), the fire will eventually put itself out. The problem with this plan is that it does nothing to put the fire out directly. It is still trickle-down economics. Prevent the whole forest from burning by sacrificing the areas in the most danger.

Without more direct help at the individual level, these houses will continue to go into foreclosure. Yes the banks will be safe, and yes the market will survive, but the housing market will continue to suffer, and the wealth of the majority of Americans will continue to decline. As long as the housing market continues to slump, America will suffer into the future.

Don't get me wrong, something has to be done immediately. Without any intervention, the credit crunch will worsen and capitalism will collapse. The key problem here is that the credit market is driven by these large banks and investment firms willing to make small amounts of money by lending large sums of money to low-risk businesses (commercial paper). As long as the investment firms and banks are worried about their balance sheets in relation to mortgage backed securities, they are going to be less willing and able to lend money to businesses through commercial paper. What we will see in the next few weeks are solid companies unable to make payroll, unable to invest in infrastructure, and unable to keep their doors open. The Paulson plan will prevent this from occurring by freeing up the investment banks to re-enter the commercial paper market.

So those are the two problems: the housing market's collapse, and the resulting disappearance of the commercial credit market.

Here is my solution;

A) Go ahead with a scaled back Paulson plan and begin buying up the mortgage-backed securities. This will largely solve the credit crisis and avert a capitalism meltdown.

B) Empower the federal government to re-negotiate mortgages to reduce the risk and frequency of foreclosure, which will stabilize the housing market and shore-up mortgage-backed securities.

While part B would actually solve the entire crisis long-term (because it fixes the underlying problem), part A is also essential because our economy runs on confidence. Without the bailout of investment banks that need to dump mortgage-backed securities, the system will collapse very quickly.

Think of these two solutions as short-term and long-term fixes. In the short-term, we need to avoid the kind of crisis that could set our nation back 30 years. But in the long term, we need to fix the problems that could keep us from advancing for the next 30 years. Without the short-term plan, we sink. Without the long-term plan, we tread. With both, we build a raft and sail out of this mess.

Where is Missouri?

Missouri has been a bellwether state in national politics since St. Louis had the World's Fair (minus 1956). I will leave the complex reasons behind this to the Missouri historians, but I think it can be summed up with a brief look at its demographics and geography. St. Louis is largely a midwest city with strong ties to manufacturing and the unions, and who also has a largely segregated population. As for the remainder of the state, they can be grossly stereotyped as either having Great Plains or the Southern tendencies, and are more like their neighboring states than they are similar to St. Louis.

It would be so much easier figure out where Missouri is going this election if Missouri had just two groups of voters. For example, Illinois has Chicago and everywhere else, and in most elections, Chicago wins. In Kansas, it is the opposite, with the rural areas typically beating Topeka and Wichita. But Missouri? The southern and great plains groups typically go republican while St. Louis (and Kansas City to be fair) goes democrat.

The Bootheel:
The southeastern United States has been a republican stronghold for years. The past two democrat Presidents were both from the south, and largely won because of key "upsets" in the south. But even Al Gore couldn't pull off Tennessee. The south has become even more firmly republican over the past 8 years and has done so largely on the backs of the Neocon movement in the Republican party. It is an odd combination of very conservative moral values and big government to benefit those already in power. But after 8 years of Neocon gluttony, the house of cards is collapsing quickly. Barack Obama is attempting to re-draw the Southeastern map with McCain struggling in Southeastern states such as Virginia and North Carolina. Will that translate into Obama doing better in Southeast Missouri?

Simply put, No. Obama's problem in southeast Missouri is that it is nothing like Virginia or North Carolina. The South is reinforcing its two distinct regions: Coastal South and Deep South. Coastal South is fast growing, largely educated, and distinctly cosmopolitan. Deep south is, well, lets just say they fit the same stereotypes that they've had for the past 30 years and are still largely controlled by values voters. Then add race into the mix. In North Carolina and Virginia, quality education has largely resulted in equality and a recession of racial problems. Even Georgia seems more progressive than Tennessee, Arkansas, and Kentucky. I hate to say this, but Obama cannot win Southeast Missouri because of race and faith.

The Missouri Plains:
The second republican stronghold in Missouri is in the north. These voters are a different brand of republicans: still social conservatives, but more in favor of small government. And after 8 years of Bush and his neocons, they had enough and were ready to bail. In Iowa, they jumped ship very quickly and appear to have swung into the D column. The remainder of the Great Plains States have trickled back to the republicans largely because John McCain is their small government maverick.

They are against the war, and against Washington, but they feel they can improve things more by keeping their guys in power. To Northern Missouri, Barack Obama is more change than they want.

But I still have not answered the central question: Where does all of this leave Missouri on November 4th? The answer revolves strictly around turnout. If Palin's star continues to fade, then I would lower turnout expectations in Southeast MO. If McCain continues to show incompetency concerning the economy, then I would lower turnout expectations in Northern MO. And if Obama's stock continues to rise over the next 35 days? St. Louis and Kansas City will bring the election home.

Winning Missouri has always been key to presidential candidates, but not because the entire state is a bellwether. It is a bellwether because the balance of turnout on election day results in a winner than reflects a region of our country larger than any one state.

The Maverick? More like the Gambler

When John McCain bet the house on Sarah Palin, it was a move of desperation. If she failed, he failed. But she hasn't yet failed. Sure the lipstick has worn off, but Palin has largely succeeded in energizing McCain's base. Fundamentalist Christians, or fundies as I like to call them, were ready to sit this one out until Palin came along. Now they are as energized as the most fervent Obama supporters because they believe that Sarah Palin is the first politician in a long time that would actually carry their agenda all the way. Republicans have talked about smaller government and overturning Roe for the past 30 years, and yet no one has actually done anything about it. Sarah Palin, in all her untested, unvetted glory, would be the first. This was a gamble that John McCain had to take, and so far, it is one that has paid off nicely.

Even if Palin fails in the debate on October 2nd, the religious fundies will still be excited about her. That is the great irony of the McCain/Palin ticket. Just as the greatest fear of independents and dems is the passing of John McCain while in the White House, that is secretly the greatest hope of the fundies. As long as McCain is actually in power, Sarah Palin will be a disappointment. But if she becomes president? Watch out Constitution!

Now on to the second installment of McCain the Gambler: Paraphrased as "Because I put country first, I am suspending my campaign to solve this economic crisis". But he went even further than that: "Furthermore, I want to suspend the debate Friday night because I am going to get my ass kicked....I mean, America needs us in this time of crisis so we should do what Bush does best and not tell the American people what we are up to....I mean Barack Obama is a terrorist by wanting to debate during the economic meltdown...I mean "Where am I" "What am I doing here"....

McCain the Gambler once again took his campaign by the horns and steered it clear away from the one place he did not want to go: Issues. After betting the house on Palin and winning lots of fundie votes, he has decided to double down and try to win all the blue collar rust belt votes by proving he is more concerned about the economy than Barack Obama.

These tactics scare the crap out of me, because yes, the American people are so good at falling for this kind of stunt. After 9-11 we fell for Bush's Iraq war "plan". In the 2004 election we fell for "Swift Boat Veterans for Truth". And in 2008 we are falling for "John McCain cares about average human beings".

Thank God that Barack Obama has the intelligence and the chutzpah to stand up against this fear mongering and firmly state that this crisis re-iterates the need for this presidential debate. The American people deserve to know what the candidates stand for and what their plans will be. Whoever wins in November will inherit this mess and the American people need to know what they will do with it. Barack had two choices. He could have went the route of so many Dems before him and agreed to suspend the debate because of fear of looking unpatriotic or unconcerned with the economy. But instead he once again proved why he is our nominee by standing up to John McCain's gamble and putting the ball back in his court. Assuming a bill has not been produced by Friday morning, we are going to see Barack Obama on stage in Oxford Mississippi while John McCain is in Washington going to bed early.

In today's world of technology, it is rather easy to stay abreast on multiple events such as a presidential debate and an economic crisis. In addition to the economic crisis and the debate, Obama plans to stay informed on the current energy crisis, the global warming crisis, the health care crisis, the Iraq war, the Afghanistan war, and now North Korea's nuclear showdown. Barack Obama has made it clear that he believes he can do more good for our country by speaking with the American people through the debate than he can by sitting in Washington for photo-ops.

Then again, John McCain has yet to discover the internet, so maybe I shouldn't be so hard on the guy. It must be very tiring to keep up on all these issues and then be ready to actually talk about them as well! I should know better than to attack a member of the Greatest Generation and a war veteran to boot.

get up and do something

The Obama campaign has a secret weapon. It is a tool that could cause this election to be a landslide, but it is a tool that has never functioned well in the hands of democrats. This weapon can be summed up as the Get Out The Vote Machine.

Pollsters have shown that nearly every state is within 10% of an Obama victory. That may be an insurmountable number when we look back at the Republican machine the past two election cycles, but in 2008, that number is very beatable.

Here is my take on the math courtesy of the US census bureau:
Only 47% of voters age 18-24 actually voted in the 2004 presidential election. There are currently 29.5 million citizens between the ages of 18-24. Lets make two simple assumptions that we can play with later. First, lets assume that this age group will vote 60-40 for Obama. Now lets assume that the turnout increases to 55%. These are both modest assumptions given Obama's support amongst college students and given the motivation and organization by the Obama campaign to get this demographic to vote.

These numbers add 470,000 more votes to Obama's column than to McCain's. In Virginia and Indiana, it produces 12000 votes and 9800 votes, respectively, which is a 0.4% gain. Statistically speaking, that is a huge shift for a very small portion of the electorate. If the numbers are expanded to include 18-36 year-olds, the shift more than triples. This is why turning out the vote and getting college students to vote will be so critical.

Another side point about voter turn-out: Pollsters are having trouble gauging how many young voters to include in their models when they conduct polls. They are typically using slightly adjusted models from 2004, making the younger voters under-represented by my assumptions above. With that in mind, every state with a gap of less than 10% is in play.

So make sure everyone you know ages 18-36 is registered and votes. Absentee ballots can be requested online and don't take long to fill out, but voting absentee-in-person or voting early (Georgia) is even easier.

In 2004, Bush won Ohio by 80,000 votes and Nevada by 20,000. If turnout among young voters beats pollsters' expectations, we can also win Virginia, North Carolina, Florida, and Indiana. However, if it is similar to 2004, it can swing the other way very quickly and we will only have ourselves to blame.

It's the economy stupid

Mark my words: the gimmick of Sarah Palin is over. Yesterday Lehman, Merrill Lynch, and AIG all collapsed over on Wall Street, but the biggest thud heard 'round the world was not from the financial district. It was from the core of the GOP who thought Sarah Palin was a poor choice, but were willing to give her the benefit of the doubt. They just realized that john McCain's biggest gamble of his campaign (putting Palin ahead of Romney) was a massively bad decision.

John McCain has spent his entire campaign putting together a cohesive argument for his leadership and judgement abilities surrounding the Surge in Iraq. For the majority of Republicans who understood how big of a drag Bush's war would be on the GOP ticket in 2008, this was a smart choice. Of all of the candidates, only John McCain could go head to head with an anti-war left. Mitt Romney had no foreign policy experience. Rudy Giuliani wouldn't stop talking about 9/11. Fred Thompson was a pillar of the Good Old Boys Neocon club that Bush kept in power for the past 8 years. And Mike Huckabee was just a goober from Arkansas who never really had a prayer. But john McCain was a war hero. A Maverick. A Bush critic.

In an election where there would be a referendum against Bush and his war, John McCain was the best hope for the GOP.

Then the economy hit the fan.

In an election where there would be a referendum against Bush and his economy, John McCain was the weakest option out there. Not only does he support Bush's economic doctrine, but he is actually dumb enough to say that the fundamentals of the economy are strong the SAME DAY Merrill, Lehman, and AIG crash. Where was this guy when Bear Sterns failed back in March? Oh yeah, he was playing Scrooge McDuck at his wife's money vault. Heck, maybe he just had bad information given the fact that his top campaign contributors all worked for Merrill Lynch. Or maybe he just doesn't get it.

Monday September 15th 2008 will be the day remembered in GOP politics as the final blow to the McCain campaign. Tuesday September 16th 2008 will be remembered as the day Mitt Romney independents in Michigan, Ohio, and the rest of the rust belt put their collective unease over Barack Obama aside and moved over into the Democrat column.

It really is the perfect storm against the GOP this year: Just when they thought they had a chance at keeping the White House, their guy (and gal) sealed the coffin.

By the way: Anyone notice that now the conventions are over, the John McCain ads on TV have mysteriously disappeared while the Obama ads are everywhere? McCain is now stuck with an $80 million budget, while Obama has $70 million in the bank and can raise as much as he wants. It will get even worse when state GOP parties and the RNC start circling the wagons on their local people and stop spending soft money for McCain.

More of the Same

One of the reasons our democracy has survived 232 years is that our Constitution explicitly lays out a division of power. This system of checks and balances prevents a single party or individual from taking our country in horribly wrong directions. Every four years we get to evaluate the performance of the party and individual in the white house, thus providing the ultimate check: our vote.

The problem is that politicians lie and too many voters don't see through it.

After 8 years of using our Constitution to wipe Dick Cheney's butt, George W Bush will finally leave the oval office. Not by choice, not by voter decree, but by term limits. Thank goodness we had the foresight to legislate that rule into place. Why? Because at this point in the 2008 presidential election, I am not convinced the American people would be smart enough to vote against Bush. We know Bush's presidential play book, and we know it involves preemptive war, lowering taxes on the rich, and letting Wall Street screw our economy. One would think that this would make him unelectable.

But then came along George...I mean John McSame.

John McCain has voted with Bush and the congressional republicans more than 90% of the time. John McCain supports a preemptive strike against Iran if they develop nuclear weapons. John McCain supports making the Bush tax cuts permanent. John McCain admits not understanding the economy all to well. By the looks of it, John McCain thinks GW Bush was a great president and we should have another 4 years of more of the same.

But here is what really scares the crap out of me: I don't think John McCain is even telling the truth about his positions on all of these issues.

All politicians make campaign promises, and then fail to reach their lofty goals when they get mired in the gridlock of Washington. Barack Obama will probably struggle to give us Universal Healthcare in 4 years. He will probably fail to wean us off of oil by 2020. He may even have to raise taxes in order to save social security or pay down Bush's war debt. But these are just slight variations on his lofty campaign promises. If he even takes steps in the right direction on these issues he will have made progress.

John McCain on the other hand is the worst type politician. He is stubborn to the core, does not have an open mind when thinking about complex issues, and is willing to sell out any of his beliefs if it is politically expedient. (Sound familiar?????) Take torture for example. Here is a real war hero who was tortured by the NVA, and has been a strong voice against torture during his Senate career. When the Bush administration began waterboarding and torturing Iraqis in Abu Grav, John McCain stood up to them and demanded it be stopped. But now he says that as long as the Army manual doesn't explicitly ban a method of torture, then it can be a useful tool. He used to rail against Camp Xray at Gitmo, but now it is barely an issue. Last time I checked, we still had a majority of the enemy combatants from the Afghanistan war imprisoned there. Shouldn't he talk about closing that prison? Or has he changed his position?

If John McCain can "come around" to the Neocon position on torture, he can come around on any topic. This is why John McCain is avoiding issues like they are the plague. If voters actually knew John McCain's current stance on taxes, the economy, the war in Iraq, or the environment, they would realize that he offers nothing that Bush hasn't already "given" us.

Instead of offering us the moon and delivering a manned space flight, John McCain is offering us a replay of the past 8 years. I can see John McCain gutting federal budgets for scientific research and gutting the clean air act. I can picture John McCain saying "you're doing a heck of a job Brownie". I can imagine John McCain shifting troops from Iraq to Iran.

It is not just more of the same. It is our worst nightmare.

Sarah Palin and the Dinosaurs

Sarah Palin must be stopped.

It is bad enough that she supports abstenence-only education programs when she herself was pregnant out of wedlock as her daughter is today.

It is bad enough that she supports banning books and fired a librarian over it.

It is bad enough she supports hunting wolves from helicopters and has something against polar bears.

But the icing on the cake? Dinosaurs. You know, those cute little creatures from "The Land Before Time" movies? Except with Sarah Palin, Dinosaurs didn't exist in a land before time. They existed in that time between Adam and Eve and Noah. Something like 6000 years ago. Sarah Palin is a firm believer in creationism and has a clear record of giving the big lipstick coated middle finger to Science.

I can understand a politician from Alaska being ignorant on foreign affairs given that her state has less than half the people in St. Louis. I can understand a hockey mom from Wasila not having a fricking clue what the Bush Doctrine is when you spent most of your time making executive decisions such as "Do we have enough money in our city budget to put up our second stop-light?" And I can understand how she thinks of herself as a reformer because in Alaska, a reformer is anyone just slightly less corrupt than Senator Ted Stevens.

But what I cannot understand is any person, religious or not, ignoring facts and ignoring the truth when it can hurt our country for generations to come. As for private citizens, I could care less whether you agree with the theory of evolution as scientific fact. Not everyone can be an expert on these things, and admittedly, evolution is not an easy subject to wrap one's head around. But as a public servant, it is your responsibility to avoid imposing your beliefs on people when they get in the way of facts and science. Science education in this country is at a low point today. I don't know if we will be able to recover from another 4 years of this idiocracy. The United States has succeeded largely on the backs of scientists, and every facet of our economy has been advanced by our scientific community. Sarah Palin likes to think God has blessed America (and therefore damned every other country) when it is science that has given us so much. But the future of science in America is uncertain. More and more top scientists are coming out of our universities, but they are from India and China. What happens when they return home and begin keeping their scientific advances for their own countries. What happens when China discovers a cure for cancer or when India is able to wean itself off of foreign oil, all the while the United States remains in the 20th century? Terrorism and the current economic crisis are small potatoes compared to the thought of the United States falling behind in science.

Sarah Palin has single-handily resurrected the religious right's power and their crusade to create a theocracy in Washington. Here are the questions I want to see journalists ask her: What is your position on the teaching of evolution in the classroom? What is the role of the church in public education? Do you intend to use religion as a litmus test for all of your policy decisions?

Sarah Palin has taken over the GOP nomination and John McCain has already become the old grandpa sitting in the back seat just hoping the Palin Express drops him off at a nice nursing home. John McCain is the face of an old GOP, pre-GW Bush, that I largely disagree with, but at least protects the Constitution and tries to uphold the tennants of our Nation. Sarah Palin is GW Bush on Jonestown KoolAid. She scares the crap out of me.

While I ultimately believe that Barack Obama will win this election on the "issues that matter most" such as the economy, foreign policy judgement, and up-holding the Constitution, this election is bigger than this. Not only does Barack have the best ideas and plans for our nation, but John McCain and Sarah Palin have the worst ideas and plans. When GW ran against Al Gore in 2000, a lot of voters said to themselves: "They seem pretty similar on a lot of issues, so I will go with Bush because I can relate to him better." This time around, the contrasts couldn't be more stark, the stakes couldn't be higher, and the future of our country couldn't be less certain. If Sarah Palin is the new face of the GOP, then you better pray that McCain doesn't kick the bucket while in office, because if he does, you can kiss your country goodbye. The choice is clear. The power is ours. Sarah Palin must be stopped.