Election Prediction Part 2

So here we are, less than one week away from Election Day. After nearly 2 years of this stuff, the big day is nearly here. One bright side of the really long campaign has been the fact that the last two years of Bush's presidency have been meaningless. It almost seems like the guy was a lame duck as soon as he entered his second term. Of course, we all know that he has been a lame president for the entire 8 years, its just the duck part that was added in the past two.

So what is going to happen next Tuesday? It is time for my second round of election predictions.

The first prediction is record turnout in general, but specifically for the Democrats. This is a relatively safe prediction because 20% of all eligible voters in Georgia, North Carolina, and Florida have already voted early. Sure they are traditionally republican states, but Obama's GOTV network is pushing much of this early voting. Something like 37 states have early voting, and the more people vote early, the more people will vote on election day because lines will be shorter and more people will be able to help with the GOTV.

On election day, the two greatest factors determining whether someone votes are A) voter enthusiasm and B) the line at the polling precinct.

As far as enthusiasm is concerned, the Democrats are as excited as ever. Just today my conservative aunt made a comment that she expects everything she is planning to vote for will lose. Talk about hurting for enthusiasm. On the flip side, Democrats can smell blood and Barack's rallies are growing in size every week. Thursday night Barack is speaking on the Quad at Mizzou at 930 pm. Columbia Missouri has about 80,000 residents. I wonder how many people will be at his rally?

To me, the biggest fear for election day is long lines at the polls. For the shift worker trying to squeeze in voting between work and picking up kids from day-care, a long line might be a lost vote. My hope is that the historical nature of and extreme enthusiasm for Barack Obama will overcome this problem. Standing in line for a couple of hours is worth avoiding 4 more years of Bush.


Prediction 2: Watch the West slide out from under McCain.

John McCain was seen as a tactical candidate whose strength in the West would help stop the bleeding the GOP suffered from in 2006. Arizona, Montana, North Dakota, Colorado, and New Mexico were all in play before McCain was the nominee. Montana elected a Dem to the Senate in 2006, in part because it was a referendum against Bush, and those anti-Bush feelings have only strengthened. But John McCain has always run strong with western conservatives (typically more fiscally conservative than socially), so those states went back into the red column.

That is, until John McCain started losing the South.

The GOP took the South for granted because they are more socially conservative: something that the Dems have really struggled with ever since Billy Bob Clinton couldn't keep his pants up and the Religious Right bought the GOD...I mean GOP. But with the perfect storm of McCain (seen as weak on social issues) and Barack Obama (speaks like a preacher and energizes the significantly sized minority populations in the South), the South began to turn pink. Heck, in Virginia and North Carolina it has turned Tarheel blue!

McCain has been on the defense in the South ever since, and thus, the West has slipped away. Poll after poll show Obama tied with McCain in Montana and North Dakota, while Nevada, Colorado, and New Mexico are now blue states.

The West is showing signs of giving Barack Obama a landslide victory.

Prediction 3: Here comes Texas.

No one is paying much attention to Texas lately, but if the tide continues to roll, Texas could be the election day surprise. A lot of New Orleans residents are still in Houston, and a lot of Republicans are still licking their wounds from Tom Delay and 2006. Texas has been a Red state because Bush was Gov and likes to cut brush, but Texas is diverse and growing rapidly. Cities like Houston, Dallas, and San Antonio have the potential to turn Texas into a swing state. Polls show the race to be within 10% points, so I am going out on a limb and predicting that Texas will be a 52-48 win for McCain or Obama.


Prediction 4: McCain will lose the election and return to Arizona only to lose that election in 2010. Poor old John McCain. Maybe somebody should give him a Worther's Original and a rocking chair.