Election Prediction Part 2

So here we are, less than one week away from Election Day. After nearly 2 years of this stuff, the big day is nearly here. One bright side of the really long campaign has been the fact that the last two years of Bush's presidency have been meaningless. It almost seems like the guy was a lame duck as soon as he entered his second term. Of course, we all know that he has been a lame president for the entire 8 years, its just the duck part that was added in the past two.

So what is going to happen next Tuesday? It is time for my second round of election predictions.

The first prediction is record turnout in general, but specifically for the Democrats. This is a relatively safe prediction because 20% of all eligible voters in Georgia, North Carolina, and Florida have already voted early. Sure they are traditionally republican states, but Obama's GOTV network is pushing much of this early voting. Something like 37 states have early voting, and the more people vote early, the more people will vote on election day because lines will be shorter and more people will be able to help with the GOTV.

On election day, the two greatest factors determining whether someone votes are A) voter enthusiasm and B) the line at the polling precinct.

As far as enthusiasm is concerned, the Democrats are as excited as ever. Just today my conservative aunt made a comment that she expects everything she is planning to vote for will lose. Talk about hurting for enthusiasm. On the flip side, Democrats can smell blood and Barack's rallies are growing in size every week. Thursday night Barack is speaking on the Quad at Mizzou at 930 pm. Columbia Missouri has about 80,000 residents. I wonder how many people will be at his rally?

To me, the biggest fear for election day is long lines at the polls. For the shift worker trying to squeeze in voting between work and picking up kids from day-care, a long line might be a lost vote. My hope is that the historical nature of and extreme enthusiasm for Barack Obama will overcome this problem. Standing in line for a couple of hours is worth avoiding 4 more years of Bush.


Prediction 2: Watch the West slide out from under McCain.

John McCain was seen as a tactical candidate whose strength in the West would help stop the bleeding the GOP suffered from in 2006. Arizona, Montana, North Dakota, Colorado, and New Mexico were all in play before McCain was the nominee. Montana elected a Dem to the Senate in 2006, in part because it was a referendum against Bush, and those anti-Bush feelings have only strengthened. But John McCain has always run strong with western conservatives (typically more fiscally conservative than socially), so those states went back into the red column.

That is, until John McCain started losing the South.

The GOP took the South for granted because they are more socially conservative: something that the Dems have really struggled with ever since Billy Bob Clinton couldn't keep his pants up and the Religious Right bought the GOD...I mean GOP. But with the perfect storm of McCain (seen as weak on social issues) and Barack Obama (speaks like a preacher and energizes the significantly sized minority populations in the South), the South began to turn pink. Heck, in Virginia and North Carolina it has turned Tarheel blue!

McCain has been on the defense in the South ever since, and thus, the West has slipped away. Poll after poll show Obama tied with McCain in Montana and North Dakota, while Nevada, Colorado, and New Mexico are now blue states.

The West is showing signs of giving Barack Obama a landslide victory.

Prediction 3: Here comes Texas.

No one is paying much attention to Texas lately, but if the tide continues to roll, Texas could be the election day surprise. A lot of New Orleans residents are still in Houston, and a lot of Republicans are still licking their wounds from Tom Delay and 2006. Texas has been a Red state because Bush was Gov and likes to cut brush, but Texas is diverse and growing rapidly. Cities like Houston, Dallas, and San Antonio have the potential to turn Texas into a swing state. Polls show the race to be within 10% points, so I am going out on a limb and predicting that Texas will be a 52-48 win for McCain or Obama.


Prediction 4: McCain will lose the election and return to Arizona only to lose that election in 2010. Poor old John McCain. Maybe somebody should give him a Worther's Original and a rocking chair.

Fight the Ignorance Fight the Smears

Since when did it become acceptable to degrade and denigrate those who are different from us?

Since when did it become acceptable to be an ignorant bigot against those who have different names or different beliefs?

My last name happens to have a Z in it. I must be some scary secret Muslim.

Timothy McVeigh was a Christian. I don't see back-woods ignorant rednecks questioning John McCain or Barack Obama for being secret Christians who want to destroy our way of life.

Barack Obama is not a Muslim, and if he were, why would that matter? Are you really that ignorant? Are you really that small minded?

I can respect conservatives who disagree with and attack Barack Obama for his tax plans or his foreign policy judgement. I can respect conservatives who believe that abortion is the only issue that matters, and use it as a litmus test when deciding their vote. I can respect conservatives who objectively analyze the candidates before them and vote the opposite I do.

BUT I CANNOT RESPECT IGNORANT PEOPLE WHO RESORT TO MAKING AND SPREADING LIES AND PERSONAL ATTACKS JUST BECAUSE THEIR MINDS ARE TOO SMALL TO THINK ABOUT WHAT ACTUALLY MATTERS.

If you think Barack Obama is a Muslim, you are not only mis-informed, you are an bigot. If you think Barack Obama refuses to salute the flag, you are not only mis-informed, you ignorant. If you think Barack Obama is a terrorist, you are simply a sad waste of space in our great country. You are no better than the KKK or Neo Nazis, you just happen to hide behind "acceptable" attacks against Muslims instead of Jews or African Americans.

Disagree? Then prove me wrong, take the time to actually learn about who Barack Obama IS, and get back to me.

The ignorance and bigotry coming out of the far right of this country is the most un-Christian and un-American hate that I have ever witnessed in my life.

How can a people of faith, people with religious convictions, be so judgemental and un-Christ-like?

I look forward to the day when all of these ignorant people go to heaven and face God for their prejudices and judgements held while they walked on Earth. I can't imagine living my life with that amount of shame.

But what can we do? How do we fight these ignorant bigots? By engaging them in truthful conversations and forcing them to confront their ignorance. By forcing them to explain themselves. By reading them the Parable of the Good Samaritan.

By going out on November 4th to vote.

Shoeless Joe from Toledo Ohio

Joe the plumber is a bigger load of crap (no pun intended) than John McCain and George W Bush combined.

First his name isn't Joe...its Samuel. And he is registered to vote under Worzelbacher when his last name is spelled Wurzelbacher...SOMEBODY CALL ACORN!!!!!

Second, he isn't a plumber at all. He is a "contractor".

Third, he isn't a licensed contractor or a member of any trade organizations, thus making him a scab and probably a really crappy home remodeler. But he says he is a member of the local 189 on his facebook page so he and Levi have something in common.

Fourth, Joe, I mean Samuel, owes the federal government back taxes. Probably for failing to report income from his crappy home remodeling business. Yeah he is a real American hero, living out the American Dream.

Oh and he had his own gaffe when he said that Obama danced around his question like Sammy Davis Jr. So Samuel Joe Wurzel Worzel Bacher just might be a racist too.

Frickin GOP poster boy.

Looks like John McCain vetted Joe the plumber about as well as he did Sarah Palin.

The Oracle of Tomato Guy Truthiness

So it is still way to early to tell whether Dick Cheney is going to run around in his underpants, but he did go into the hospital today....maybe he needed to go in for robot maintenance? Between this and Chuck Hagel's wife watching the debate tonight with Michelle Obama, I have to say that the blog may have turned into a Gypsy fortune teller.

If that is the case, I should put out more crazy predictions such as John McCain burping during the debate tonight.

Stay tuned for the Alien invasion on election night when Shirley McClain and Dennis Kucinich unveil their true identities and take over the world!

Election Predictions Part 1

We are only 3 weeks away from finally getting to vote in this never-ending election, so I thought it was appropriate that I put out my first round of predictions. Of course, I say first round because inevitably something will happen between now and November 4th that will make these predictions entirely moot (like John McCain punching himself in the face during the debate because he cannot decide which John McCain to be), thus requiring revision.

Prediction 1: Obama will win the nationwide popular vote 54-46. This is a huge margin, but here is how I am seeing it: Obama is going to rack up big margins in Blue states, win a lot of the purple states by close calls, and compete well in most red states (save Alabama). He may only lose Texas by single digits, and yet win New York by 20.

Prediction 2: Obama will win the electoral college 343 to 195. He won't destroy him, but it will be an interesting mandate. I think McCain has the ability to capture Ohio and North Carolina, but the chances are low. On the otherhand, I think Obama has the ability to take North Dakota, Indiana, and Missouri. No matter what, there will be some surprises on election day.

Prediction 3: The House of Reps will stay in the hands of the Dems, but there will be shifts. Conservative Dems are going to lose this round, but so will Moderate Republicans. Net gain of 3 seats for the Dems.

Prediction 4: The Senate will be a catastrophe for the Republicans. Franken (MN), Udall (CO), Udall (NM), Hagan (NC), Martin (GA), Warner (VA), Shaheen (NH), Begich (AK), Musgrove (MS), and Merkley (OR) are all in a position to win or make it very close. That would be 10 pick-ups. If that happened, the Dems could give Lieberman a swift kick in the ass because he would be useless. No matter what, the guy is losing his chairmanship, but Dems will continue to play nice if they need him to get a filibuster-proof majority. In other words, unless the Dems pick up 9 seats, no more, no less, Joe is done.

Prediction 5: There will be two big endorsements for Obama in the coming 3 weeks. The first will be Colin Powell. This will solidify Obama's foriegn policy flank, and will bring more independants to the ticket. The second is Chuck Hagel. I can see the speech now: "John McCain is a great man. John McCain is a hero. But our great country needs Barack Obama. He will restore America to its glory and I look forward to being his Secretary of State."

Prediction 6: Dick Cheney runs around the Oval Office in his underwear on January 20th 2009 refusing to leave. Secret service tackle him, only to find out that he is actually a robot. The real Dick Cheney is found 3 days later in a man size safe, mummified with toilet paper wrappings enscripted with the US Constitution. Okay, not actually an election prediction, but it could still happen.

And lastly: Prediction 7: That lady who called Barack Obama an Arab finds out her daughter is marrying a Egyptian Harvard graduate with a PhD in Economics and she is converting to Islam. Bless her heart.

Too little too late

Sarah Palin put in a surprisingly competent debate performance last night and likely saved her political career. Just not her career as John McCain's VP.

As I have detailed before, John McCain has been desperately searching for a game changing event the past 5 weeks. The announcement of Sarah Palin as his running mate and the suspension of his campaign over the economic crisis were two huge gambles taken in vain effort to change the momentum of the election.

As of Thursday morning, both were failing miserably. Palin was looking so bad, even her original supporters were pronouncing her dead. She had fallen from the graces of everyone (except the true wackos...more on them later), and the VP debate was billed as the nail in the coffin.

Then at the debate, Sarah Palin did something she was unable to do with Katie Couric....she spoke in complete sentences. As the debate went on, she even went as far as finding a rhythm and theme. Joe Biden looked overly scripted and couldn't find a balance between Joey the Shark and Joe six-pack, while Sarah Palin embraced her colloquial and annoying Peggy-Hill-goes-to-Alaska personality and mannerisms.

With that 90 minute performance, she erased all of the doubts and jokes, and returned this race to where it belongs: More of the Same with John McCain or the Change that We Need with Barack Obama.

Sarah Palin can now go on to be a successful Alaskan governor and is well positioned to take Ted Steven's seat in the US Senate after he is either thrown in jail or pushed down a hill.

The problem for John McCain is that in all of Sarah Palin's success last night, the story never even approached Barack Obama. John McCain has tried to make this election about Barack Obama's judgement and Barack Obama's qualifications. As long as the election is about the economy, the war, healthcare, or John McCain, Obama will continue to dominate the polls and will win the election. And if you look at last night's debate, it was a no win situation for Sarah Palin. Her competency had become such a huge distraction that any traction she made on bringing the message back to Barack Obama was utterly ignored. In today's newspapers, everyone is talking about the fact that Sarah Palin got a reversed frontal lobotomy Thursday morning as opposed to talking about the points made in the debate.

To be fair, this is where Joe Biden won the debate. Biden was very articulate and avoided making any gaffes, but more importantly, Joe Biden kept the focus on John McCain, the economy, and healthcare. Because of Joe Biden, a lot of blue collar workers are going to be asking about John McCain's plan for taxing healthcare costs. Because of Joe Biden, the focus is still on that conversation at the kitchen table.

In some ways, it feels as though Barack Obama might as well be running against a blank slate. Election day might as well be a yes/no vote on Barack Obama alone. One could argue that John McCain cannot win this election, only Barack Obama can lose it. But given Obama's rise over the past couple of weeks and given Biden's debate performance last night, they will not lose it. John McCain was hoping Sarah Palin would be a game changer, and she almost was, but ultimately it will all be too little too late for McCain and the GOP.

My Rescue Plan

After 2 weeks of thinking about this economic bailout, I am decidedly undecided about whether it should be passed.

Here is a summary of everything floating around in my head:

There seem to be two major problems with the current crisis. The first is that the precipitous decline in the housing market and rise in foreclosures has resulted in the collapse of mortgage-backed securities and the investment firms that pushed them. As long as housing values continue to decline and as long as foreclosures continue to increase, these debts will continue to drag down wall street and thus keep us in this economic crisis. The Paulson plan is basically writing off all of these debts (and thus writing off the individuals who hold these mortgages) saying that we cannot recover until we wipe the slate clean. That way, if and when these mortgages do go into foreclosure, the debt has already been paid. And if they miraculously avoid foreclosure? The government profits.

This plan is the equivalent to using controlled burn tactics to fight a large forest fire. By conceding a large piece of real estate (no pun intended), the fire will eventually put itself out. The problem with this plan is that it does nothing to put the fire out directly. It is still trickle-down economics. Prevent the whole forest from burning by sacrificing the areas in the most danger.

Without more direct help at the individual level, these houses will continue to go into foreclosure. Yes the banks will be safe, and yes the market will survive, but the housing market will continue to suffer, and the wealth of the majority of Americans will continue to decline. As long as the housing market continues to slump, America will suffer into the future.

Don't get me wrong, something has to be done immediately. Without any intervention, the credit crunch will worsen and capitalism will collapse. The key problem here is that the credit market is driven by these large banks and investment firms willing to make small amounts of money by lending large sums of money to low-risk businesses (commercial paper). As long as the investment firms and banks are worried about their balance sheets in relation to mortgage backed securities, they are going to be less willing and able to lend money to businesses through commercial paper. What we will see in the next few weeks are solid companies unable to make payroll, unable to invest in infrastructure, and unable to keep their doors open. The Paulson plan will prevent this from occurring by freeing up the investment banks to re-enter the commercial paper market.

So those are the two problems: the housing market's collapse, and the resulting disappearance of the commercial credit market.

Here is my solution;

A) Go ahead with a scaled back Paulson plan and begin buying up the mortgage-backed securities. This will largely solve the credit crisis and avert a capitalism meltdown.

B) Empower the federal government to re-negotiate mortgages to reduce the risk and frequency of foreclosure, which will stabilize the housing market and shore-up mortgage-backed securities.

While part B would actually solve the entire crisis long-term (because it fixes the underlying problem), part A is also essential because our economy runs on confidence. Without the bailout of investment banks that need to dump mortgage-backed securities, the system will collapse very quickly.

Think of these two solutions as short-term and long-term fixes. In the short-term, we need to avoid the kind of crisis that could set our nation back 30 years. But in the long term, we need to fix the problems that could keep us from advancing for the next 30 years. Without the short-term plan, we sink. Without the long-term plan, we tread. With both, we build a raft and sail out of this mess.